A Down Year in the NFL.

We're almost half way through the 2013 NFL season, and we've already heard a lot of grumbling about the quality of football. We already hear analysts and fans alike talking about how there aren't really many "good" teams this year. We've heard a lot about injuries, and we've heard a lot of blame being passed onto rules regarding limited practices - as if tackling in practice and two-a-days for six full months is somehow better for your body. We've already heard people write of the Patriots for being perhaps the best worst team in maybe NFL history.

So basically, it's just like any other year in the NFL.

Everyone wants to anoint teams with the "best" moniker so quickly. We always hear these arguments. It's as sure as the league passing overly convoluted rules in the name of "player safety." At this point in the season, there rarely are a good chunk of legitimately great looking teams. Everyone struggles early. Let's take a look at some numbers from this year and compare them to each of the previous five.

Through seven games in 2013, we have the following:

14 teams above .500
2 teams at .500
16 teams at .500

For those who slightly prefer percentages, that means that through the first seven games of the season, 43% of the teams have a winning record, while 50% have a losing record. What's more though is that we have 4 teams with one or fewer wins with 3 teams that have six or more. Ok, so we have half the league with losing records and we have four teams whose combined record would give us a total of just two wins. How does this stack up to years past?

Through seven games in 2012:

13 teams above .500
5 teams at .500
14 teams below .500

Ok. Maybe we have fewer teams with winning records, but we also have fewer teams with losing records. We have more teams looking just average. We also have the same number of teams with one or fewer wins (4), but in 2012, we only had two teams with six or more wins at this point.

Through seven games in 2011:

17 teams above .500
3 teams at .500
12 teams below .500

This year was a bit deceptive. After all, 53% of the league had a winning record at this point in 2011. However, although there were fewer teams with losing records, the losing teams were really bad. There were more teams with one or fewer wins (5), while there were the same number of teams that had six or more ones (2).

Through seven games in 2010:

17 teams above .500
2 teams at .500
13 teams below .500

I love talking about 2010 in this conversation. I love it because it shows just how difficult it is to truly quantify "good" and "bad" years in the NFL. At face value, you might look at those numbers and say, "Well, ok, there was one more bad team in 2010 than in 2011, but you still had 53% of the league with winning records! It was a good year!" However, although those numbers might be skewed to favor the "good year" argument, if you break it down by the "really good" teams versus the "really bad" teams, it is heavily leaning toward the really bad. In 2010, you see the biggest gap between number of teams with one or fewer wins (6 ) and number of teams with six or more wins (1). In 2010, despite more teams with winning records, you had more teams ultimately looking average.

Through seven games in 2009:

14 teams above .500
6 teams at .500
12 teams below .500

This is also a complicated year. It was almost one of perfect mediocrity. Not only do you see the most teams at .500 exactly than any other year since 2008, you also see a difference of only two teams between winning and losing teams. Additionally, the gap between the obviously good and obviously bad is almost balanced as well, with 6 teams that had one or fewer wins while there were 4 teams with six or more wins. However, it is worth noting that in 2009, you also had the most winless teams at this point in the season (Tampa Bay, St. Louis, and Tennessee were a combined 0-20 at this point in 2009).

Through seven games in 2008.

15 teams above .500
5 teams at .500
12 teams below .500

Additionally, there were 3 teams with one or fewer wins with only 1 team with six or more wins at this point in 2008. To my mind, 2008 was a year of perfect mediocrity. Over half the teams above .500 had just 4 wins, so you didn't see anyone stand out particularly early (to put in perspective, the Tennessee Titans were 6-0 at this point in '08). It was pretty much an average year in the NFL.

You can also look at these years another way: playoffs.

In the past five years, three of them featured teams that were .500 or below. In 2011, we had the 8-8 Denver Broncos. In 2010, we had the 7-9 Seattle Seahawks. In 2008, we had the 8-8 San Diego Chargers. Pretty bad sign of the times, to be honest.

Ok, ok. Sure, that's a little misleading. After all, the 2008 San Diego Chargers made the playoffs because they won their bad division while an 11-5 New England Patriots missed out thanks to divisional and wild card tie breakers. So the 8-8 Chargers making the playoffs don't necessarily mean it was a down year.

But where will we draw the line? In 2004, we had one of the biggest "down years" in a long time. There were two 8-8 teams in the playoffs (Vikings and Rams), and yet, neither one of them won their divisions. That means that there were literally only four teams in the NFC with winning records! It's pretty safe to call that a down year, regardless of how many total winning teams there were. There is something to be said about having the only .500 or below teams make the playoffs in the past five years be winners of terrible divisions rather than having 8-8 teams squeak in on wild cards.

But after two months of football, we must ask ourselves if we expect that to happen this year. If we were to start the playoffs this week, the AFC would have all six teams above .500 (Patriots, Chiefs, Bengals, Colts) and both wild card teams would be above .500 (Broncos - weird to think that they're just a wild card right now - and Jets or Chargers, not sure who has the tiebreaker though I believe it's the Jets). And in the NFC? Well, it's a little less pretty, but it's the same deal. All division leaders right now are above .500 (Cowboys, Packers, Saints, Seahawks). I'm not entirely sure who would have the wild cards if it were right now, but there are four additional teams in the NFC that are above .500.

This trend typically tends to persist throughout the year. Though it doesn't seem unreasonable to imagine an 8-8 team winning the NFC East (or frankly, the AFC North though they should have a 10-6 winner - it's just that it could take just an 8 win record to win it), it's hard to imagine that a .500 team would get in on a wild card this year.


When you compare the numbers of winning teams versus losing teams, plus the really good teams versus the really bad teams, plus the playoff pictures, it's hard to really suggest that this year is - really - any different than years past. Certainly, it's no 2004. But given the state of the league with its focus on parity and creating an environment where - in theory - no one should be really bad for really long (makes you wonder what's going on in Jacksonville, Buffalo, and Oakland, huh?), this is pretty much exactly what the league is and has been for a while.

And if you're looking for teams that pass the "eyeball" test, how many do you need? What is the minimum before you call it a "down year"? Right now, I'd say you've got Indianapolis, Seattle, Denver, San Francisco, New Orleans, and Green Bay playing pretty well right now with a few teams that are playing surprisingly well like San Diego or Carolina. Plus you've got the Patriots who somehow know how to win despite losing so many key offensive and defensive players while also just straight up  not playing well (does anyone think New England will be this bad at the end of the season? They almost always start 4-3 or 5-2, and almost every year, everyone talks about how not great they looked in the first half. I'm not saying New England is going to really turn it around - I'd honestly be surprised if they really make much of a splash in the post season - but they'll be better than they are now).  That right there is enough for me to say this is a normal year in the NFL.

I'm always surprised at how quickly everyone wants to jump on the "this year sucks" bandwagon when it comes to the NFL, but in reality, it's not that different. No, it's not a down year in the NFL. This is just what the NFL is.