Sunday, September 22, 2013

Enough about Stevan Ridley's "Fumbling Problem."

Being in New England and watching every Patriots game, there's been one topic that has been simultaneously blown way out of proportion and also beaten to death: Stevan Ridley's supposed fumbling problem.

To a certain extent, I understand why people jumped to that conclusion. Ridley had a big fumble in the AFC Championship game against Baltimore, and then he fumbled again eight months later in the next meaningful game - a road opener against the Buffalo Bills. After his Week One fumble, Ridley rode the bench for the rest of the game (partly because of the fumble, but also in part because Shane Vereen was having a huge day). Since then, announcers, sports radio hosts, and fans have all been talking incessantly about Ridley's fumbling problem.

There are two things that should probably be considered though. The first thing is when these two memorable fumbles occurred. In the very last game against the Ravens last season, Ridley fumbled on a play in which he was pretty much knocked out. Frankly, though critical during the game, it's kind of hard to fault him for fumbling while temporarily unconscious. The fumble against the Bills was legitimately and entirely on Ridley's shoulders. He straight up just dropped it. It was a bad fumble, but it's also the first meaningful game of the season. If we're going to cut Tom Brady and his Island of Misfit Receivers slack for "being young" and "sorting it out early in the season," we should extend that to Ridley.

The second thing we should look at is the statistics. When I look at the numbers, I cannot for the life of me see where this "fumbling problem" is. Here are the top 15 running backs by yardage in 2012 (I've also included LeSean McCoy - who wasn't top 15 in yards, but is a pretty well-admired player - and Shane Vereen who replaced Ridley in the aftermath of that Week One fumble). Actually, for the hell of it, I'm going to include everyone's favorite player on an embarrassingly bad team, Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD didn't play more than six games in 2012 due to injuries, but let's put what he did in those games.

So, from most yards down with their number of fumbles in 2012:

1. Adrian Peterson - 4 fumbles
2. Alfred Morris - 4 fumbles
3. Marshawn Lynch - 5 fumbles
4. Jamaal Charles - 5 fumbles
5. Doug Martin - 1 fumble
6. Arian Foster - 3 fumbles
7. Stevan Ridley - 4 fumbles
8. CJ Spiller - 3 fumbles
9. Chris Johnson - 5 fumbles
10. Frank Gore - 3 fumbles
11. Ray Rice - 1 fumble
12. BenJarvis Green-Ellis - 3 fumbles
13. Matt Forte - 2 fumbles
14. Shonn Greene - 4 fumbles
15. Steven Jackson - 0 fumbles
19. LeSean McCoy - 4 fumbles
43. Maurice Jones-Drew - 2 fumbles (in six games - in 2011, he had 6 fumbles - just something to think about)
73. Shane Vereen - 1 fumble

Ok. Look at those numbers. Are you seriously going to suggest that Stevan Ridley has a fumbling problem? With the exception of Tampa's Doug Martin, everyone who has more yardage than Ridley has a very similar number of fumbles. Yet no one views Marshawn Lynch as a fumbler. No one questioned Alfred Morris's ability to hold onto the ball. Jamaal Charles is rarely accused of having a fumbling problem. It's true that once upon a time, fumbling was considered a problem for Adrian Peterson, but it's been at least five years since anyone's considered him a fumbler.

So how is it that on this list, Ridley and only Ridley gets the reputation of a fumbler?

I know, I know. You can't just look at the total number of fumbles though. There are other factors at play. Let's compare the number of fumbles of these 18 players to the number of carries they had. With the exception of McCoy, Jones-Drew, and Vereen (an underutilized back, an injured player, and a secondary back respectively), everyone is pretty much in the same ball park in terms of total number of carries.

Here it is by the number of carries:

1. Arian Foster - 351
2. Adrian Peterson - 348
3. Alfred Morris - 335
4. Doug Martin - 319
5. Marshawn Lynch - 315
6. Stevan Ridley - 290
7. Jamaal Charles - 285
8. BenJarvis Green-Ellis - 278
T10. Shonne Greene - 276
T10. Chris Johnson - 276
11. Frank Gore - 257
T13. Ray Rice - 257
T13. Steven Jackson - 257
14. Matt Forte - 248
15. CJ Spiller - 207
LeSean McCoy - 200
Maurice Jones-Drew - 86
Shane Vereen - 62

Let's look at that same list in a slightly different manner. Let's break it down to percentage of carries that result in fumbles from looking at the number of carries with the number of fumbles. Just for the hell of it, let's also list how many touchdowns they had. Here it is:

1. Steven Jackson - 0% - 4 TDs
2. Doug Martin - 0.3% - 11 TDs
3. Ray Rice - 0.4% - 9 TDs
4. Matt Forte - 0.8% - 5 TDs
5. Arian Foster - 0.9% - 15 TDs
6. Adrian Peterson - 1.1% - 12 TDs
7. BenJarvis Green-Ellis - 1.1% - 6 TDs
8. Alfred Morris - 1.2% - 13 TDs
9. Frank Gore - 1.2%  - 8 TDs
10. Stevan Ridley - 1.4% - 12 TDs
11. Shonn Greene - 1.4% - 8 TDs
12. CJ Spiller - 1.4% - 6 TDs
13. Marshawn Lynch - 1.6% - 11 TDs
14. Shane Vereen - 1.6% - 3 TDs
15. Chris Johnson - 1.8% - 6 TDs
16. Jamaal Charles - 1.8% - 5 TDs
17. LeSean McCoy - 2% - 2 TDs
18. Maurice Jones-Drew - 2.3% - 1 TD (through 6 games - it was 1.7% with 8 TDs in 2011 off of 6 fumbles on 343 carries - still a higher percentage of fumbles than Ridley with fewer TDs and more fumbles)

In what world do these statistics tell us that Stevan Ridley has a fumbling problem? Yes, he had fewer carries and fewer yards than Marshawn Lynch - who was in the MVP race for a while - but he fumbled it less often and had an additional touchdown. And yet, Lynch is considered a top tier back while Ridley is considered a potentially great back who has a fumbling problem.

What?

Three weeks in, the Patriots seem to finally be getting something resembling an offense. Ridley is still one of their best backs (the argument can be made that Vereen has always shown more explosiveness, but Ridley is still their best for running between the tackles). And yet, it seems like the Patriots organization has - for some reason - bought into this idea that Ridley is a weak link. They've been using him less often, buying into this mountain of a molehill that everyone else has made.

It almost seems, though, that by turning something that wasn't a problem into a problem, a real problem has the potential to come out. Ridley is having to answer more and more about this fumbling problem of his that doesn't really exist. So now he's overthinking it.

In reality, Ridley doesn't have a fumbling problem. Additionally, for all of the major issues the Patriots were having on offense, Ridley's fumbling was certainly not one of them.

Unless now we want to start talking about Brady's red zone interception problem...


Wednesday, September 18, 2013

NFL Week 2 Summaries:

Patriots beat Jets 13-10.

All the receivers were going to sue the NFL about playing in the rain, but they dropped the case.

Bills beat Panthers 24-23.

To be fair, Ron Rivera only had about a dozen opportunities to win the game.

Bears beat Vikings 31-30.

Adrian Peterson should get the MVP for not making a big stink that he plays for the Vikings.

Packers beat Redskins 38-20.

They might as well have just given them small pox blankets.

Dolphins beat Colts 24-20.

Miami is about three wins away from making you forget how dumb their new uniforms are.

Falcons beat Rams 31-24.

There's no quit with these Rams! Also, winning.

Saints beat Buccaneers 16-14.

If holding Drew Brees to under 20 points were wins, Tampa would  be like, 1 and 30, or something.

Raiders beat Jaguars 19-9.

That score doesn't accurately tell how many fans watched the game.

Ravens beat Browns 14-6.

Don't worry Baltimore, at least you have an elite quarterback.

Chiefs beat Cowboys 17-16.

Good for them, finally beating the white man.

Texans beat Titans 30-24.

With 24 points scored in the 4th quarter, many are wondering if these teams realize this isn't hockey. There are four periods.

Chargers beat Eagles 33-30.

I guess Philly is revolutionizing losing too.

Cardinals beat Lions 25-21.

Arizona hasn't looked this good since the last episode of Breaking Bad! Oh, wait. That's New Mexico. Never mind.

Broncos beat Giants 41-23.

According to a graphic, Peyton is better at Golf, Baseball, and Darts. And also? Quarterbacking.

Seahawks beat 49ers 29-3.

You'd almost think that the Seahawks were cheating somehow! With like, PEDs and stuff. But they don't do that...

Tuesday, September 10, 2013

NFL Week 1 Summaries.

Broncos beat Ravens

Don't worry, Baltimore. At least you have an elite quarterback.

Patriots beat Bills

The Bills blow a lead against the Patriots for the first time since 2012.


Seahawks beat Panthers

Oh hey, defense is still a thing!

Bears beat Bengals

Chicago starts their season by outscoring the Cincinnati AJ Greens.

Dolphins beat Browns

Brandon Wheeden on pace to throw 0 INTs on opening day in 2016.

Lions beat Vikings

It's a good thing Minnesota didn't go after Alex Smith! Unless you prefer TDs to INTs.

Colts beat Raiders

Colts fans already forget how their management wanted to get rid of Reggie Wayne. Raiders fans wish they could forget their management, just in general.

Chiefs beat Jaguars

If a team gets a safety, but no one is around to watch it, does it still count for two points?

Saints beat Falcons

A game where the number of points scored is inversely proportional to the amount of offense played well.


Jets beat Buccaneers

Interesting: you CAN win games by not doing anything!

Titans beat Steelers

Oh hey, defense is still a thing! Or...is it just terrible offense? Hard to tell.


49ers beat Packers

Oh, ok! The Packers defense still sucks. Just checking. Also, you can avoid ejection if people like you enough, apparently.

Rams beat Cardinals

Fans excited their teams played well, but cry themselves to sleep remembering they're in the NFC West.

Cowboys beat Giants

People struggling to figure out how A) this game was so close, B) they scored 67 points, C) Eli is considered "elite."


Eagles beat Redskins

Vick plays well in his first of four games before succumbing to injury.

Texans beat Chargers

Don't call it a comeback! Or, wait, they were down by 21? Ok, yeah, call that a comeback.  (Also, remember when Brian Cushing was suspended for using PEDs? But football fans don't give a crap about PEDs?)