It used to be so simple in the NFL. You won games by winning the turnover battle. You won playoff games with home field advantage. And you got to the Super Bowl by earning the Bye. It seems more and more in today's offense-friendly NFL, getting any or all of these things is no sure guarantee anymore. The first one to look at - with the divisional round coming up - is the significance of the Bye Week.
How important is the Bye? People seem increasingly split on this. It used to be seen as a huge advantage. Your players could rest and heal up and be in better condition than the other teams. Yet the past decade has seen a ridiculous number of wild card teams come in and win (on the road) against the teams with the Bye. An ever-growing number of people believe now that playing the wild card weekend actually boosts your team's chances as it gives them more "momentum." You get into a stronger rhythm playing that extra game.
In the past ten years, the teams coming off the bye week are a combined 24-16. The chances of coming away with a post season win having the bye are pretty good. Those teams have a combined winning percentage of .600. Most teams would take those odds. Interestingly, only once in the past ten years have all four teams with the bye week won (2004). The last three years straight saw three of the four bye teams win!
What's strange is that those numbers haven't translated to Super Bowl wins. In the past ten years, only four teams have won a Super Bowl after having earned the bye week. It's one thing to get out of the Divisional Round. How do teams earning the Bye stack up on the Conference Title front? Well, it's a smaller pool of games, but it shows just how hard winning the post season is. Teams with the Bye week are actually 12-12 in Conference title games. This number can be deceptive, of course, as five times in the past ten years, at least one conference title game featured both bye teams from the conference. Only once have all four teams made it (2004).
So it seems having the Bye Week increases your chances of winning at least one playoff game. They have won 60% of the Divisional Round games in the past decade! But if your team can get past that? The Bye Week seems to have no real bearing. Granted, you need to strip half the games away, but if you do look at just the Conference Title games that feature a Bye week team vs. the 4 or lower seed? Well, those teams with the Bye are just 5-4. It's pretty much split. It's not really a big enough jump in the Conference Championship round to really suggest the Bye helps there. Still, you need to at least get there to have a shot at the Super Bowl, right?
Of course, the Bye matters even less once you get there. If teams with the Bye have a slight, statistical edge in the Conference Title games, teams without have a slight edge in the Super Bowl. Teams that made the Super Bowl that also played in the Wild Card weekend are an incredible 6-2 against teams that earned the Bye in the last ten years. Only in 2004 and 2009 did we see both teams in the Super Bowl win out with the Bye (the Patriots and Eagles in '04 and then the Saints and Colts in '09).
Even more astounding is the fact that straight up wild card teams have won the Super Bowl three times while the one-seed has only won twice (Pats in '03 and the Saints in '09).
It's hard to really make anything of these numbers. The Bye week seems to increase your chances of making the Conference Championship, and even the Super Bowl! But it ultimately doesn't do anything to your odds of winning the Super Bowl. What's strange is if you go back further than ten years ago, you start to see the Bye Week mattering a lot more. Starting at 2002, you have to go eight years to find a time when only half of the Bye Week teams made it. In the seven NFL years from 1996 to 2002, three of the four teams made it beyond the Divisional Round. Additionally, teams with the bye week won the Super Bowl five of those seven times! (No wildcard team won in that span. In fact, only once did a wild card team even make the Conference Championship in that span - the Jacksonville Jaguars in 1996.) It is interesting to note that the Bye week used to make a big difference - or at least, it seemed to. Nowadays, it doesn't.
With the Divisional Round coming up, it seems like everyone is already picking the Bye teams to win. It makes sense. Seattle is nearly invincible at home. Denver is a literal video game offense right now. New England has history (even if most of that history is reaching the 10 year mark in age). The only team people are picking to win is San Francisco. Whether or not the Bye Week really does help, there is certainly one thing for sure: nothing is guaranteed. And this is exactly what the NFL wants. But for once, this is also what the fans want too.
My picks for the Divisional Round:
SEATTLE 38 - New Orleans 17
A repeat of the most unfair consequence of the current playoff format from a few years ago, the difference here is that Seattle actually does deserve to be in the playoffs and to host a game this time! Drew Brees and the Saints conquered some demons in Philly; then again, the Eagles didn't exactly have a terrifying defense. Though a big win, it really seems unlikely to think this Saints team - which has been pretty bad on the road - can go into three straight playoff games on the road and win them all.
INDIANAPOLIS 31 - New England 20
The Pats and Colts didn't play this year, oddly, so we don't have much to go on. The Pats have not been able to catch a break this season with injuries. They've been falling apart at the seems defensively. And now they're going up against one of the best young quarterbacks in the league. Meanwhile, Brady and the offense have not looked particularly good. The have a good shot here, as teams that run the ball well have been succeeding so far in the post season. Still, their red zone woes are going to really bite them. If the Pats do win, it will be due to clock management and field position.
SAN FRANCISCO 27 - Carolina 20
Riverboat Ron's incredible year should come to an end against arguably the best team in football in the last quarter of the season. Still, Carolina held off San Fran before. They certainly possess the means to do it again. Ultimately, it will depend on whether Carolina's front seven can contain Kaepernick the way Green Bay's never can. The Panthers do have an extremely talented and fun to watch front seven though. They certainly can do it. Both quarterbacks can be streaky with their accuracy, but when you look at their respective receiving talent, San Fran has the clear advantage.
DENVER 36 - San Diego 24
San Diego had a huge upset win to keep their playoff hopes alive earlier in Denver. Certainly, if their defense can pressure Peyton Manning the way they pressured Andy Dalton? It won't be easy. However, it's important to note that Manning is not Dalton. He makes faster reads and gets rid of the ball quicker (and he generally lacks the arm to take only deep shots.) I don't think Denver is as clear cut a favorite to win the AFC as everyone else, but they should win here. I mean, everyone keeps suggesting there's no one in the AFC that can beat Denver, but the Broncos three losses came against three of these AFC playoff teams (Indianapolis, New England, and San Diego - all of whom are still alive). Plus, we've seen this before when completely one dimensional teams - especially those led by Peyton Manning - have come crashing to earth in the post season.
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