Being in New England and watching every Patriots game, there's been one topic that has been simultaneously blown way out of proportion and also beaten to death: Stevan Ridley's supposed fumbling problem.
To a certain extent, I understand why people jumped to that conclusion. Ridley had a big fumble in the AFC Championship game against Baltimore, and then he fumbled again eight months later in the next meaningful game - a road opener against the Buffalo Bills. After his Week One fumble, Ridley rode the bench for the rest of the game (partly because of the fumble, but also in part because Shane Vereen was having a huge day). Since then, announcers, sports radio hosts, and fans have all been talking incessantly about Ridley's fumbling problem.
There are two things that should probably be considered though. The first thing is when these two memorable fumbles occurred. In the very last game against the Ravens last season, Ridley fumbled on a play in which he was pretty much knocked out. Frankly, though critical during the game, it's kind of hard to fault him for fumbling while temporarily unconscious. The fumble against the Bills was legitimately and entirely on Ridley's shoulders. He straight up just dropped it. It was a bad fumble, but it's also the first meaningful game of the season. If we're going to cut Tom Brady and his Island of Misfit Receivers slack for "being young" and "sorting it out early in the season," we should extend that to Ridley.
The second thing we should look at is the statistics. When I look at the numbers, I cannot for the life of me see where this "fumbling problem" is. Here are the top 15 running backs by yardage in 2012 (I've also included LeSean McCoy - who wasn't top 15 in yards, but is a pretty well-admired player - and Shane Vereen who replaced Ridley in the aftermath of that Week One fumble). Actually, for the hell of it, I'm going to include everyone's favorite player on an embarrassingly bad team, Maurice Jones-Drew. MJD didn't play more than six games in 2012 due to injuries, but let's put what he did in those games.
So, from most yards down with their number of fumbles in 2012:
1. Adrian Peterson - 4 fumbles
2. Alfred Morris - 4 fumbles
3. Marshawn Lynch - 5 fumbles
4. Jamaal Charles - 5 fumbles
5. Doug Martin - 1 fumble
6. Arian Foster - 3 fumbles
7. Stevan Ridley - 4 fumbles
8. CJ Spiller - 3 fumbles
9. Chris Johnson - 5 fumbles
10. Frank Gore - 3 fumbles
11. Ray Rice - 1 fumble
12. BenJarvis Green-Ellis - 3 fumbles
13. Matt Forte - 2 fumbles
14. Shonn Greene - 4 fumbles
15. Steven Jackson - 0 fumbles
19. LeSean McCoy - 4 fumbles
43. Maurice Jones-Drew - 2 fumbles (in six games - in 2011, he had 6 fumbles - just something to think about)
73. Shane Vereen - 1 fumble
Ok. Look at those numbers. Are you seriously going to suggest that Stevan Ridley has a fumbling problem? With the exception of Tampa's Doug Martin, everyone who has more yardage than Ridley has a very similar number of fumbles. Yet no one views Marshawn Lynch as a fumbler. No one questioned Alfred Morris's ability to hold onto the ball. Jamaal Charles is rarely accused of having a fumbling problem. It's true that once upon a time, fumbling was considered a problem for Adrian Peterson, but it's been at least five years since anyone's considered him a fumbler.
So how is it that on this list, Ridley and only Ridley gets the reputation of a fumbler?
I know, I know. You can't just look at the total number of fumbles though. There are other factors at play. Let's compare the number of fumbles of these 18 players to the number of carries they had. With the exception of McCoy, Jones-Drew, and Vereen (an underutilized back, an injured player, and a secondary back respectively), everyone is pretty much in the same ball park in terms of total number of carries.
Here it is by the number of carries:
1. Arian Foster - 351
2. Adrian Peterson - 348
3. Alfred Morris - 335
4. Doug Martin - 319
5. Marshawn Lynch - 315
6. Stevan Ridley - 290
7. Jamaal Charles - 285
8. BenJarvis Green-Ellis - 278
T10. Shonne Greene - 276
T10. Chris Johnson - 276
11. Frank Gore - 257
T13. Ray Rice - 257
T13. Steven Jackson - 257
14. Matt Forte - 248
15. CJ Spiller - 207
LeSean McCoy - 200
Maurice Jones-Drew - 86
Shane Vereen - 62
Let's look at that same list in a slightly different manner. Let's break it down to percentage of carries that result in fumbles from looking at the number of carries with the number of fumbles. Just for the hell of it, let's also list how many touchdowns they had. Here it is:
1. Steven Jackson - 0% - 4 TDs
2. Doug Martin - 0.3% - 11 TDs
3. Ray Rice - 0.4% - 9 TDs
4. Matt Forte - 0.8% - 5 TDs
5. Arian Foster - 0.9% - 15 TDs
6. Adrian Peterson - 1.1% - 12 TDs
7. BenJarvis Green-Ellis - 1.1% - 6 TDs
8. Alfred Morris - 1.2% - 13 TDs
9. Frank Gore - 1.2% - 8 TDs
10. Stevan Ridley - 1.4% - 12 TDs
11. Shonn Greene - 1.4% - 8 TDs
12. CJ Spiller - 1.4% - 6 TDs
13. Marshawn Lynch - 1.6% - 11 TDs
14. Shane Vereen - 1.6% - 3 TDs
15. Chris Johnson - 1.8% - 6 TDs
16. Jamaal Charles - 1.8% - 5 TDs
17. LeSean McCoy - 2% - 2 TDs
18. Maurice Jones-Drew - 2.3% - 1 TD (through 6 games - it was 1.7% with 8 TDs in 2011 off of 6 fumbles on 343 carries - still a higher percentage of fumbles than Ridley with fewer TDs and more fumbles)
In what world do these statistics tell us that Stevan Ridley has a fumbling problem? Yes, he had fewer carries and fewer yards than Marshawn Lynch - who was in the MVP race for a while - but he fumbled it less often and had an additional touchdown. And yet, Lynch is considered a top tier back while Ridley is considered a potentially great back who has a fumbling problem.
What?
Three weeks in, the Patriots seem to finally be getting something resembling an offense. Ridley is still one of their best backs (the argument can be made that Vereen has always shown more explosiveness, but Ridley is still their best for running between the tackles). And yet, it seems like the Patriots organization has - for some reason - bought into this idea that Ridley is a weak link. They've been using him less often, buying into this mountain of a molehill that everyone else has made.
It almost seems, though, that by turning something that wasn't a problem into a problem, a real problem has the potential to come out. Ridley is having to answer more and more about this fumbling problem of his that doesn't really exist. So now he's overthinking it.
In reality, Ridley doesn't have a fumbling problem. Additionally, for all of the major issues the Patriots were having on offense, Ridley's fumbling was certainly not one of them.
Unless now we want to start talking about Brady's red zone interception problem...
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