PREFACE: I started this article with the idea that I would argue Tim Tebow should be starting over Mark Sanchez. As I continued to delve deeper into the stats though, I began to realize that - statistically speaking - the two were much more identical than I imagined. Probably more so than anyone thought. Still, while case for Tebow is extremely thin at best, the statistics are still pretty insightful. Thus, I've decided to post this despite the weak sauce argument.
Let me start by saying that I have never really understood the hype around Tim Tebow. Last year, he stunk up most of the season, pulling out close games, then backed into the playoffs losing three straight and winning the division on a tie-breaker, got a huge helping hand from his receivers, and then got crushed by a true competitor. With a few fourth quarter exceptions, he looked horrible in almost every game. The run-option offense that John Fox built around Tebow worked well for a while, but by the end of the season went the way of the Wild Cat. Defenses figured it out and were able to shut it down with little problem.
This is not to suggest that Tebow can't become a decent quarterback in the NFL. He's only in his third season and hasn't even started a full one yet. He has a strong arm and great mobility. And he's tough. The guy can take some licks. He has potential if he can learn to become a more traditional style quarterback. However, until then, Tebow is not someone that you can bank on for sustained success or legitimate post season success.
Yes. I remember last year's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers - the Anomaly. Tebow deserves credit for some really pretty passes, but overall, his performance was only impressive in context of it being Tim Tebow who was playing. For a majority of the game, he did a whole lot of nothing. On those few occasions he did something, they were big plays. Again, credit to Tebow for hitting those receivers perfectly in stride; ultimately the receivers deserved more credit.
Of the 316 yards he threw for, 260 of those came off of five passes of 30 or more yards. That's 82% of his passing yards - off of five plays! Tebow went 10 for 21 (again, completing less than 50% of his passes) and 2 TDs - only one in regulation. Pittsburgh did well keeping him in check on the ground and held him to 50 yards on 10 rushes, though they did give up a TD. Point being, Denver won on a few big plays. They converted on just three of ten third downs and scored just three points in three full quarters of play. The Broncos scored 20 points in the second quarter, taking a 20-6 lead at half time before blowing it in the second half - in no small part to Tebow's inability to convert on third downs thanks to his inaccurate arm.
And can we just talk about that Demaryius Thomas touchdown in overtime for the win? Would anyone have been more impressed with the quarterback than with the receiver if it had been any other quarterback than Tim Tebow? Before that throw, Tebow had completed 45% of his passes. Yes, he threw a perfect strike 20 yards down field to an open receiver making his break. Thomas took it the remaining 60 yards himself. That is a throw that any quarterback starting in the NFL should be able to make. It only seemed impressive because of who was throwing it - the woefully inaccurate Tim Tebow.
Further complicating the Tebow issue is how steadfast supporters are with the opinion that Tebow is a natural winner - "all he does is win," they argue. In 2011, Tebow went 8-6 as a starter. (He's 9-8 in his NFL career.) He had a good stretch, pulling off narrow victories for six straight weeks. Then, he went 1-4 in the final five games they played. And when you look at that six game winning streak, they won four straight by four points or fewer. It's true that his fourth quarter stats shoot up considerably, but the Denver defense deserves a lot more credit for their success in that stretch than Tebow.
Tebow isn't going to score many points. In his fourteen starts, he scored 20+ points in just five games (that's 35% of his games). He led the Broncos to 30+ points just three times (21%). Normally, when you so consistently score fewer than 20 points, you aren't going to win - that is, unless your defense can hold the opponent to the same. Let's not ignore the relatively soft schedule the Broncos had. Tebow played against just two playoff bound teams, losing both by a combined score of 86-33. In the playoffs, despite one win, he was outscored 68-39 in those two games.
Admittedly, that long first part was designed to do a little Tebow bashing. Not to say he doesn't have positive attributes or can't develop, there is nothing to indicate that he is a good quarterback in the NFL. Statistically, he is underwhelming. Even in the running game, he is not that impressive. In 2011, he ran for 6 touchdowns while losing 6 fumbles. Compare that to Cam Newton, who ran for 14 touchdowns while only losing 2 fumbles, or this year Robert Griffin already has 6 rushing touchdowns to 2 lost fumbles. Tebow should not be a starter in the NFL, unless your team is in desperate need of a change. One of maybe three teams that fits this description is the New York Jets.
Sitting at 3-5, the Jets season is extremely close to finished. Granted, the second half of their season is pretty weak, with only the Patriots and Seahawks on the docket with winning records, they still technically have a chance. Still, when the Jets lose, they lose ugly. To be fair to Mark Sanchez, he doesn't have a whole lot to work with. Shonn Greene has started to show up this season, but the defense is banged up and the receivers are dropping a lot of passes. However, Sanchez has gone most of the season completing less than 50% of his passes and not all of that falls on the receivers.
When you compare the two, Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow don't look all that different right now. Sanchez has completed 53% of his passes this season (only breaking the 50% mark in recent weeks). That number seems a little inflated too when you consider that a big part of his increased percentage comes from his game against New England - a team with a notoriously awful secondary that customarily makes Joe Flacco look like Joe Montana. Overall, this 53% is usually where Sanchez hovers. His first three years, he completed 53.8%, 54.8%, and then 56.7%. Improvement each year, but not really what you are hoping for in your quarterback. Comparatively, Tebow completed 50% of his passes in the three games he started in 2010 before completing just 46.5% of his passes in 2011 (the second lowest completion percentage of a starting quarterback since 2000). That number seems pretty inflated too when you consider that nearly a quarter of his completions were wide receiver screens in which his throw never went beyond the line of scrimmage. Of pass attempts that went beyond the line, he completed a dismal 41.6%.
So to look at the completion percentages, they don't look all that different. Sanchez's rate might be improving slowly, but they've gone 1-2 since he started completing more than 50% of his passes. Despite improving his accuracy, the Jets still struggle to put up points. In the last three weeks, they've scored 35, 23, and 9. In the first three weeks, they scored 48, 10, 23. They are also the only team to get shut out in a game - week 4 against the Texans. Yes, not even the abysmal Kansas City Chiefs have been shut out this season. The Jets offense just struggles to put up points consistently - similarly to how Tim Tebow has in his career. When it comes to scoring points, Tebow and Sanchez are practically the same.
There's no secret that the Jets are built around their defense. If the defense holds, they don't need their offense to do a whole lot. Even with a banged up defensive unit, this Jets team is still talented enough to make a wild card run. At the quarterback position though, neither guy is going to put up a lot of points. Neither guy is going to complete a high percentage of his passes consistently. Even the turnover differential is practically identical. Sanchez accounted for 32 touchdowns last season (26 passing, 6 rushing); he also accounted for 26 turnovers (18 interceptions, 8 lost fumbles). He accounted for 6 more TDs than turnovers. In 2011, Tebow accounted for 18 touchdowns (12 passing, 6 rushing) and 12 turnovers (6 ints, 6 lost fumbles) - 6 more TDs than turnovers. In his three games at the end of 2010, he accounted for 11 TDs (5 passing, 6 rushing) while only accounting for 4 turnovers (3 INTs, 1 lost fumble). Hard to really go by that though given that it was only three games and Tebow is a streaky player. Already this year though, Sanchez accounts for 10 TDs (all passing) and 11 turnovers (8 INTs, 3 lost fumbles). On this front, Tebow has the edge (though narrowly).
They even have almost identical sack stats. In 2011, Sanchez was dropped 39 times totaling 243 yards. Tebow was sacked 33 times for 225 yards. Sanchez's passer rating is currently sitting at 72.8. Tebow's passer rating for last year was 72.9.
The one area of difference really is in the rushing yards. Because Tebow is bigger, stronger, and more mobile, he took off a fair amount. He rushed almost half as often as he threw. This eventually opened up the passing game in the fourth quarter, but it also opened up the running game a little bit. Mark Sanchez is not very mobile. Teams don't have to play that aspect defensively. No one is worried that Sanchez will take it. In this regards, Tebow is superior, rushing for 660 yards on 122 attempts.
Ultimately, that is why the Jets should consider starting Tebow soon if Mark Sanchez continues to struggle with consistency. The trick will be to try and get Tebow to fit into the offense, with occasional quarterback runs. The run-option offense of the Broncos last year was effective to a point, but proved to be more of a novelty offense - like the wild cat. If you can get Tebow to keep his eyes down field and can get him to address his mechanics (long wind up, sloppy footwork), Tebow has a strong arm and the mobility to become a dangerous quarterback.
If the Jets lose one more game, they are essentially out of playoff contention. Mathematically, they might remain, but realistically, they would not. Tebow could provide a spark to an otherwise stale and predictable offense that struggles with consistency, with accuracy, and with scoring. Currently, they are 21st in points, 27th in yards, 26th in passing yards, and 14th in rushing yards. Their defense ranks 6th in passing yards, but 29th in rushing yards allowed. Opponents are able to run all over them and control the clock and the pace of the game. New York's offense has to be able to control the ball a little bit more, to keep their defense off the field. The running game is looking solid, but they don't have a means to capitalize on that.
While I argue Tim Tebow might just bring a little more to the table than Mark Sanchez here, it's tough to think of him as a long term solution for the Jets. When the year is over, they might do best to look toward the draft again.
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